Robusta coffee prices increased by 2.27%, ending a five-week decline; Arabica coffee prices increased by 4.28% after two consecutive weeks of decline.

According to information from the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), green dominated the price list of industrial raw materials last week (November 4-10). In particular, the coffee market had positive developments.

Robusta coffee prices increased by 2.27%, ending a five-week decline; Arabica coffee prices increased by 4.28% after two consecutive weeks of decline. The stronger USD after the US election helped buying power to dominate, despite positive export data from the world’s leading coffee producing countries.

The Dollar Index increased by 0.69% last week, while the Brazilian Real also strengthened, causing the USD/BRL exchange rate to decline from its highest level in nearly three years. However, this has not stopped investors from shifting their money to more profitable markets, leading to increased buying of commodities such as coffee derivatives.

In addition, Brazil recorded lower-than-average rainfall in some major coffee growing regions, raising concerns that the 2025-2026 coffee crop may not fully recover. Agricultural analyst Ana Carolina Gomes said that the quality of coffee beans in the 2025-2026 crop has not improved despite heavy rains returning to Brazil since mid-October, helping the coffee trees to flower during the main crop.

Experts estimate that the coffee harvest in 2025 will decrease due to the impact of the previous drought and high temperatures. Meanwhile, Mario Ferraz de Araujo, of Cooxupe, Brazil’s leading coffee cooperative, said that the good rains will not change previous losses and production will definitely decrease.

Meanwhile, the top producing countries all recorded positive export figures in October compared to the same period last year. The Brazilian government announced that the country exported more than 270,300 tons of green coffee, up nearly 12%; Colombia recorded an output of 1.33 million 60kg bags, up 16% with exports reaching 1.04 million bags, up 15%. Honduras exported more than 35,200 60kg bags, up 41.7%, while Vietnam is estimated to have exported more than 44,000 tons, up 1.5%.

In addition, other important data also showed that the global coffee supply is being consolidated, contributing to narrowing the price increase. Coffee inventories in Europe are improving thanks to recent increased import activities. According to the European Coffee Federation (ECF), coffee inventories in the European Union (EU) as of the end of August reached 8.85 million 60kg bags, marking the fifth consecutive month of increase.

Notably, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) announced that global coffee exports in September reached nearly 10.8 million bags, up 24.9% compared to September 2023. In the 2023-2024 crop year, total global coffee exports reached 137.3 million bags, up 11.7% compared to the previous crop year.